Investing
Existing Home Sales Fall At The End Of A Strong First Quarter
Tuesday, May 01, 2012 12:12

Tags: economic indicators | economy

 

Sales of existing homes fell 2.6% during the month of March. The rate is measured against the annual rate of units sold. The annual rate in February was revised upward to 4.60 million units; March’s number was against an annual rate of 4.48 million units.

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The National Association of Realtors also showed that inventories of existing homes shrank, diminishing supply and causing prices to rise. The decline in March did not change the fact that the first quarter of the year saw the strongest sales pace since the first quarter of 2007. Median prices were up 2.5% from the previous year.
 
The percentage of distressed sales was also less in March than in February, coming in at 29% of sales from February’s 34%. The numbers are yet another encouraging sign of economic recovery amid other cautionary signals such as the disappointment in March employment numbers.

 

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The Four Percent Rule May Not Work Using Today's Different Portfolio Components
Tuesday, May 01, 2012 12:08

Tags: global investing | investing | US investing

 

The 2008 crisis challenged the way clients think about investing. Sticking to traditional investment theory may or may not make sense. This is particularly true when it comes to the four percent rule of retirement income withdrawal.

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The rule says that, in a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, withdrawing four percent per year should make your money last for about 30 years. The problem is that many retirees are investing in other types of assets like alternatives and emerging markets and commodities. Those instruments carry greater risks so it may be advisable to whittle the four percent down to two.
 
If the markets do really well, the four percent rule may be inadequate. It can keep the retiree from living the kind of retirement life he or she envisioned. On the other hand, taking out four percent during a bad market may erode assets faster. In these cases, more flexibility is needed than the four percent rule allows.
 
When the four percent rule was established, people primarily invested in American securities. Now, investment portfolios have more international exposure. A wider variety of asset classes in a retirement portfolio may make the four percent rule less effective in meeting clients’ retirement income and wealth preservation needs.

 

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Is It Better To Rent Or Buy A House While The Market Is Improving...
Tuesday, May 01, 2012 11:47

Tags: client education | investing | real estate

A client wants to make a down payment on a house for his son as a wedding gift. But he’s not sure if it would be better to do that or to pay the rent on a nice home for them for the first few years. He asks you what you think, knowing that he will have to pull money from the account he has with you to make the down payment.

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Whether it’s better to buy or rent a home may not be a question many investors often ask. But the Census Bureau says home ownership has fallen to 65.4%. That’s the lowest level since 1997. And only 8.8% of rentals were vacant in the first quarter, the lowest level since 2002.
 
Rents are growing at a rate of 2.5%. Housing supply coming into the market is not even close to matching the demand for rentals. So it looks like rents will keep rising over the next 12 – 18 months. The number of homes for rent is declining because the overall decline in inventory of homes for sale. Average rent growth in 2013 could reach 5% in 2013.
 
This indicates that investing in rental homes while the housing market gains strength may be a good idea. Home sales are improving—they were strong during the first quarter, despite the decrease of 2.6% in March. And interest rates are still quite low.
 
So when a client is on the buy side, putting some figures down will help him make a more informed decision when the economy is still in flux.
 
This client has found two houses he’s considering for his son and daughter-in-law to be. The first house has an asking price of $499,000. His son has a promising future and your client is thinking it would be great to start them out with a nice house in a good neighborhood.
 
But he’s not sure whether buying the house in this environment would be a smart thing to do, especially since it's difficult to get a fixed rate on a jumbo loan.
 
The person who owns this house was told he’d be lucky to get $350,000 out of it. So he’s thinking of renting it for $2,200 per month for about two years. He doesn’t want to take less than he paid for it and he thinks the market will be better by then.
 
For both the seller and your client, this house makes more sense to rent than to buy. After two years, the cumulative outlay will have been a total of $54,559 for renting compared to $103,700 for buying. That would be a savings of $49,141.
 
The calculation includes $696 spent in renter’s insurance and assumes a $2200 deposit will be returned after the second year.
 
The buying calculation includes a $99,800 down payment, a selling value of $519,160 in two years, and all closing costs, property maintenance, insurance, utilities, and renovations.
 
The renter’s totals do not include utilities although it is usually the renter’s responsibility to pay them. Even with the inclusion of utilities, the renter’s cumulative outlay over two years for this house is $57,007. That’s still better after two years by $46,693, or 45%.
 
On a less expensive house, say with a $265,000 asking price and a rent of $1350 per month, it still makes sense to rent. The cumulative outlay over two years is $33,479 compared to $56,227. That’s a difference of 22,748, or 40%. Hike the rent on this home to $1600 a month and the tables turn in favor of buying.
 
Renting either of these homes would cost less over a two-year period than buying. It would also give the client two more years to grow his assets.
 
It also may make sense for the client to buy one of these homes and rent it to generate income after his son and daughter-in-law move out.
 
Whether to rent or buy can also be a consideration when looking at a second home. You can input other data and make adjustments using an interactive calculator.
 
If the economy continues to improve, asset growth over the two years could also occur in a potentially more favorable market environment. And if the Fed really does keep rates low until 2014, then two years out could also be a better time to offer his son that down payment.

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Quality Of First Quarter GDP Was Better Than 2011's Fourth Quarter Despite Reporting Lower Numbers
Monday, April 30, 2012 16:42

Tags: earnings | Economic Outlook | S&P

Seventy percent of reported earnings so far have been better than analysts predicted. Expected growth in earnings for the S&P 500 index have increased to 6.5% over the past couple of weeks from a January predition of 4.05%. This should help boost investor confidence that the economic recovery is not being derailed by weaker than expected employment numbers or GDP growth.

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Some analysts have said that, despite the weaker GDP numbers announced recently by the Commerce Department, the quality of first quarter growth is higher than the fourth quarter of 2011. The fourth quarter had 3% GDP growth but that growth resulted from higher inventory buildup.
 
The better than expected earnings reports plus improvements in consumer spending and purchases of durable goods like automobiles provide a more solid foundation for continued economic improvement. The industrial, technology, and financial sectors led the earnings surprises. These are the sectors that also typically lead the way during lasting economic recoveries.

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Some Large Pension Plans Are Offering Lump Sum Benefits To Retirees In Lieu Of Future Pension Payments
Monday, April 30, 2012 16:33

Tags: pensions | retirement income

Ford and other large companies have begun offering lump sum benefits payouts to retirees instead of ongoing payouts from pension plans. Many companies are facing shortfalls on their pension fund obligations. The first pension fund bankruptcy was filed recently and more bankruptcies are expected.

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Lump sum payments retire future obligations, making it easier for companies to resolve their pension plan woes. Retirees get the benefit of a lump sum to invest but they also need investment advice on how to make the funds last over what can be a long span of retirement years.
 
In Ford’s case, the funds would come from existing pension assets so the payments will not affect earnings. It would help their balance sheet by the reduction of long-term debt obligations and it would eliminate retirees’ concerns that future pension income might never be seen. It also reduces the possibility of a benefits reduction by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, a government agency that provides insurance for corporate pension plans.

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